7:09 p.m. ET: Saint Peter’s Peacocks (21-11) vs Purdue Boilermakers (29-7)
Spread: Purdue -12.5
Total: 133.5
Saint Peters looks like a team that can cover this line, but they’re due to regress and there’s good value on one of the best offensive teams in the NCAA. Purdue’s offense ranks 12th nationally with 79.8 points per game. Purdue is fourth in the nation in three-point percentage. Jaden Ivey has led the Boilermakers with 17.6 points and 3.1 assists per game. They also have the 2 giants in the post with 7’4″ Zach Edey and 6’10” Trevion Williams. Though he has mostly come off the bench this season, Williams plays a key role at both ends of the court and led Purdue with 22 points on 10-of-13 shooting in the win over Texas. The Peacocks have been one of the most profitable teams for bettors this season, boasting a 22-9 record against the spread, including nine in a row but they haven’t faced a team like Purdue. Kentucky is good but they weren’t ready or expecting that kind of performance out of the Peacocks. Purdue will defeat Saint Peter’s on Friday and their Sweet 16 game and the Cinderella story will come to an end. Take Purdue to cover the spread with ease.
7:29 p.m. ET: Providence Friars (27-5) vs Kansas Jayhawks (30-6)
Spread: Kansas -6.5
Total: 141.5
This line opened with Kansas at -8.5 and the sharps pounded it down to -6.5 at some books. The only problem with this line movement is the public is also pounding Providence with over 65% of the tickets coming in on the Friars. When everyone is on the same team, that’s usually not the side you want to be betting on. Kansas has a clear edge in terms of statistics even though Providence is the strongest team they have faced so far in the tourney, the offense will be tough to contain with the number of scorers on the court. Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun are prolific scorers this team will have a hard time stopping. Kansas handled a Creighton team that dominated Providence 85-58 in the Big East tournament on March 11. The Friars struggled from the beginning of the Big East Tournament through their NCAA first-round win over South Dakota State but they failed to reach 40% shooting in 3 straight games before putting an end to the Richmond run by hitting just about every shot they took that game. Kansas will be ready to roll in this game after they played TCU three times in March, beat Texas Tech for the Big 12 Championship, and it dealt with Texas and Baylor twice over the last weeks of conference play. With the number at 6.5, the Jayhawks should be able to cover this one.
9:39 p.m. ET: North Carolina Tar Heels (26-9) vs UCLA Bruins (27-7)
Spread: UCLA -2.5
Total: 142
North Carolina and UCLA were supposed to meet last December in Las Vegas, but the game was canceled when UCLA had a COVID-19 outbreak. In this matchup, the Tar Heels have a big advantage in rebounding. The Tar Heels’ wins in the Tournament have been much more impressive compared to the Bruins’. UCLA’s Jaime Jaquez (14.0 ppg, 5.7 rpg) is dealing with an ankle injury and will be a game-time decision. He’ll likely play but can’t be 100%. The Tar Heels’ late-game execution has been suspect and that could be a challenge against this UCLA team. If the game is going to be close, then UCLA will have a chance but UNC’s offense has been rolling. In this spot, you have to take the team that is simply playing better right now. North Carolina also owns a 10-3 all-time record against UCLA, including wins in the past 5 meetings.
9:59 p.m. ET: Iowa State Cyclones (22-12) vs Miami Hurricanes (25-10)
Spread: Miami -3
Total: 133
We’ve seen this line go from Iowa State -1 to Miami -3 with the massive amount of public tickets coming in the Canes. We also have a low total on this game indicating it is going to be more of a defensive battle than an offensive one. Both teams play a guard-heavy lineup which will create solid matchups on both ends of the floor but Iowa State has a major advantage on defense. Iowa State is the second-best defensive team remaining in the field per KenPom. The Cyclones defense shut down #3 seed Wisconsin and #6 seed LSU in the tourney. The Hurricanes’ offense is slightly better than both of those teams but Iowa State’s perimeter defense only allows 28.7% shooting and held Johnny Davis without a three on Sunday. Iowa State’s slow pace will ensure a close game so grab the points with the Cyclones.