Duke vs Louisville NCAA College Basketball Prediction Pick, Odds, & Analysis
GAME: #611 Duke vs #612 Louisville
TIME: 3/10/2021 -6:30p EST
SPREAD: Duke -2
TOTAL: 142
The #10 seed Duke Blue Devils (12-11, 10-9) play the #7 seed Louisville Cardinals (13-6, 8-5) in the ACC Tournament Second Round at the Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina on Wednesday at 6:30 p.m. EST. Duke pounded Boston College in the first round and won by a score of 86-51. These teams met twice this season and Louisville swept the two-game regular-season series. The teams last faced each other on Feb. 27, when the Cardinals shot 45.5% from the field en route to the seven-point overtime victory.
DUKE BLUE DEVILS
The Duke Blue Devils are averaging 75 points on 46% field goal shooting with eight 3-pointers on 34% three-point shooting and 9.6 offensive rebounds per game. Duke is allowing 72 points per game on 46% field goal shooting while forcing 13.8 turnovers with 6.4 steals and 4.2 blocks per game on the defensive end. The Blue Devils are led by Matthew hurt who is averaging 18.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.4 assists per game.
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS
The Louisville Cardinals are averaging 68 points on 43% field goal shooting while shooting 31% from three-point land per game. The Cardinals are allowing 66 points per game on 42% field-goal shooting while forcing 11 turnovers with 6.4 steals and 3.6 blocks per game on the defensive end. Louisville is led by Carlik Jones who is averaging 17 points, 4.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists, and 1.4 steals per game.
TRENDS
DUKE
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Devils’ last 5 games following an ATS win.
- The Blue Devils are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Wednesday games.
- Over is 22-8 in Blue Devils last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
LOUISVILLE
- Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss.
- Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up loss.
- Under is 5-1 in the Cardinals’ last 6 games following a straight-up loss.
- Over is 8-3-2 in the Cardinals’ last 13 neutral site games.
DUKE vs LOUISVILLE PREDICTION PICK
The Blue Devils lost to Louisville twice this season however they could have easily won both of the games. The key to beating Louisville is stopping Carlik Jones’s dribble-drive penetration. Jones is not a good outside shooter but if he can get to the paint he can score with ease. If Jones is stopped and Louisville doesn’t have a tremendous shooting game from the perimeter they will lose. The Cardinals are 10-0 when they make 6 or more 3-pointers and 3-6 when they fall shy of that mark. Coach K should have this figured out by now after the 2 tough losses. Duke’s shooting against B.C. was outstanding shooting 15/32(46.9%) from three-point land so they should be able to duplicate this performance on the familiar court. The Blue Devils are 5-0 when they hold opponents to a field goal percentage of 40.6% or worse, and 7-11 when opponents exceed that percentage. This is a neutral court but Duke will have the advantage of yesterday’s game while it is Louisville’s first game on this hardwood. The first 2 times these teams met the total went Under in the 1st matchup and only went over because of OT in the second matchup. In this matchup, Duke will be focusing on stopping Carlik Jones which will result in the Under. The Bookie is rolling with the Duke Blue Devils to cover the spread and win this game.
BETTING ANGLES:
The Bookie: Duke -2 / Under 142
Fade the Public: Duke / Under
Sharp Action: Duke / Under