Dayton vs. Kansas Prediction

EMAILED ON November 27, 2019

Dayton vs. Kansas Prediction


Game:     (731) Dayton (5-0) vs. (732) Kansas (5-1) 
Time:       Wed. 11/27  5:00 PM EST at Lahaina Civic Center
Spread:   Kansas –4
Total:       147
Odds from:  5Dimes Sportsbook 

The Dayton Flyers will take on the #4 ranked Kansas Jayhawks in the final round of the Maui Invitational tonight. This is the championship game.  The Jayhawks defeated Chaminade and BYU by a total of 45 points, while Dayton posted victories over Georgia and Virginia Tech by 46.  This will be a showdown of 2 teams that have dominated in Hawaii over the past few days. 


The Dayton Flyers average 87 points per game, ranked #8 in the NCAA and they are shooting 55% from the field which is #1 in the NCAA.  Dayton allows 66 points per game on defense while allowing opponents to shoot 45% from the field and 38% from three-point land. The Flyers are shooting 36% from 3 point land, averaging 9 threes per game.

Dayton’s key player, Toppin is averaging 24 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.2 blocks for the Flyers, who have outscored their first five opponents by an average of 21 points. Toppin scored 24 points on 10-of-14 shooting and grabbed eight rebounds in the win over Virginia Tech while guards Trey Landers and Rodney Chatman each scored 13. The team’s eight-man rotation includes sophomore point guard Jalen Crutcher, who had six points and nine assists in Tuesday’s win and averages 11.8 points and 6.4 assists.


The  Jayhawks are averaging 81 points per game which is ranked #40 in the NCAA while allowing only 61 points per game which is ranked #69 The Jayhawks are shooting 51% from the field which is ranked 11th in the NCAA.  Kansas defense is allowing only 36% field goal percentage and 27% from three-point land which will be a challenge for Dayton considering their offense is semi-built around the 3-point shot.

The Jayhawks outscored BYU 42-18 in the paint and received another strong effort from guard Ochai Agbaji, who entered the tournament in a shooting slump but has averaged 12.5 in the last two games. Point guard Devon Dotson averages a team-high 17.8 points and turned in a strong performance against BYU, finishing with 13 points and eight assists in 37 minutes. Senior guard Isaiah Moss was the first man off the bench again Tuesday and ranks fourth on the team in scoring (9.8) while shooting 47.8 percent from 3-point range.


This will be a tough matchup for Dayton as they will be facing a much better Kansas defense that they have seen yet. The Jayhawks will defend them well and guard their three-point jumper just like they did against BYU. Expect Kansas to limit Dayton’s points and cover the spread with defense. The Jayhawks forced BYU to turn the ball over 20 times and will use the same pressure defense against the Flyers.



  • Over is 11-1 in DAY last 12 non-conference games.


  • KU are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Atlantic 10.
  • Under is 18-7-1 in KU last 26 Wed. games.
  • KU are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 Wed. games.


Data Analysis:   Kansas -4 / Under 147
Fade the Public:   Kansas -4 / Over 147
Sharp Action:  no data  / no data

Dayton vs. Kansas Prediction
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