#11 Louisville vs #3 Duke Prediction & Analysis – College Basketball

EMAILED ON January 18, 2020

#11 Louisville vs #3 Duke Prediction & Analysis – College Basketball


GAME:  #763 Louisville vs #764 Duke    
TIME:    1/18/2020 – 6:00p EST
SPREAD:   Duke -8
TOTAL:      138.5
SPORTSBOOK:  WagerWeb Sportsbook

The #11 Louisville Cardinals (14-3, 5-1) are set for a tough ACC road game against the #3 Duke Blue Devils (15-2, 5-1) at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina on Saturday at 6 p.m. EST. Louisville has 1 win and 2 losses against ranked opponents this season. In their last games, Duke lost at Clemson by a score of 72-79 while Louisville won at Pittsburgh 73-68 in a game they should have lost but barely pulled out a W. 


The Louisville Cardinals are averaging 74 points per game on 46% field-goal shooting while adding 8.1 three-pointers per game and 10 offensive rebounds and turning the ball over an average of 12 times per game.  The Cardinals are allowing only 61 points on 36% field goal shooting while forcing 11.2 turnovers and adding 5.8 steals and 2.9 blocks per game. Cardinals are led by Jordan Nwora with 20.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 1.4 assists along with Steven Enoch with 10.8 points and 6.8 rebounds per game.


The Duke Blue Devils are averaging 83 points per game on 48% field-goal shooting while adding 7.2 three-pointers per game and 11.8 offensive rebounds. The Blue Devils are allowing only 63 points per game on 41% field goal shooting while forcing 17 turnovers per game and adding 7.1 steals and 3.8 blocks. The Blue Devils are led by Vernon Carey jr. with 17.6 points 8.5 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game along with Tre Jones who is averaging 15.1 points, rebounds 6.8 assists and 2.2 steals per game


The Blue Devils played poorly against Clemson and they still almost won if it weren’t for a couple of calls in the last few minutes that could have gone either way whereas the Cardinals have not been playing well in their last few games as they barely beat Notre Dame by 3 and also Pittsburgh in Over Time which they should have lost.  Louisville has beat a few decent teams this year but they are overrated for the most part. Tre Jones will be shutting down the Louisville offensive flow to hold them to low scoring.  Duke defends the 3 well allowing only 30% and 4 per game which will limit Louisville points. This line is also set at a high number in which the public is jumping all over the Louisville points but look for Duke to cover the spread here as they have been preparing for this game for some time which is why they looked so poor against Clemson. 

TRENDS(from covers.com)


  • Over is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games as a road underdog.
  • Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 Saturday games.
  • Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.


  • Blue Devils are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 5-1 in Blue Devils last 6 games following an ATS loss.


  • Home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.


Bookie Analysis:  Duke -8 / Under 138.5
Fade the Public:   Duke -8 / Under 138.5
Sharp Action:       no data / no data

Bet This Game at WagerWeb 

Louisville vs Duke Prediction

#11 Louisville vs #3 Duke Prediction & Analysis – College Basketball
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