GAME: #903 Braves @ #904 Marlins
DATE: 7/9/2021 – 7:10 p EST
ODDS: Braves -120 / Marlins +110
O/U: 7.5 -110 / -110
The Miami Marlins (38-48) host the Atlanta Braves (42-44) at LoanDepot Park on Friday at 7:10 pm EST.
WEATHER (baseball-weather.com)
BATTER VS PITCHER(dailybaseballdata.com)
STARTING LINEUPS (rotowire.com)
TRENDS (covers.com)
ATLANTA
- Under is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Mortons last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mortons last 4 Friday starts.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Mortons last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Mortons last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
MIAMI
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlin’s last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
- Marlins are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-1 in Thompson’s last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Thompson’s last 5 starts on grass.
HEAD TO HEAD
- Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Miami.
- The Braves are 13-5 in the last 18 meetings in Miami.
- The Braves are 39-17 in the last 56 meetings.
BRAVES VS MARLINS PREDICTION
The Braves lost 2 of 3 against a weak Pittsburgh team in its most recent series while the Marlins beat the Dodgers 3 out of 4 games. This line opened with the Braves listed as -140 road favorites and the Marlins a + 125 home dog. The public is pounding the Braves and despite this lopsided number of tickets, the Braves line has dropped from -140 to -120. This signals some sharp money with reverse line movement on the Marlins (+ 125 to + 110). Miami has value as a divisional dog. Historically, dogs have performed well in divisional games as the built-in familiarity levels the playing field. Home dogs have gone 209-252 (45.3%) this season but produced + 15 units won due to the plus-money payouts. Miami is + 20 in run differential this season. Atlanta is + 16. The Marlins are 21-19 at home. The Braves are 18-22 on the road. Take the Marlins today to get the win.
The Bookie: Marlins +110 / Over 7.5 -110
Fade the Public: Marlins / Under
Sharp Action: Marlins / Under